Method and system for rapidly projecting and forecasting...

Details Method and system for rapidly projecting and forecasting... Method and system for rapidly projecting and forecasting...

G - Physics

06

Q

G06Q 30/00 (2006.01)

Patent

CA 2469511

A system and method for providing a monthly cumulative prediction of pharmaceutical sales of a particular pharmaceutical, or group of pharmaceuticals, in a current month is disclosed. In particular, the technique of the present invention provides for extrapolating a sample of sales data for a given day across that entire day (114), extrapolating sales data for at least 14 prior days across an entire month (116); adjusting the monthly cumulative prediction by comparing past predicted values with past actual values (118); adjusting the monthly cumulative prediction to account for sales anomalies created by national or local holidays (120); and provides confidence intervals indicating the believed accuracy of the current monthly cumulative prediction (122).

L'invention concerne un système et un procédé d'établissement d'une prédiction cumulative mensuelle des ventes de produits pharmaceutiques d'une entreprise pharmaceutique particulière ou d'un groupe d'entreprises pharmaceutiques, dans un mois donné. En particulier, la technique de l'invention permet d'extrapoler un échantillon de données relatives aux ventes pour un jour donné, sur l'ensemble de la journée; d'extrapoler des données relatives aux ventes pour au moins 14 jours précédents, sur un mois entier; d'affiner la prédiction cumulative mensuelle en comparant des valeurs prédites passées à des valeurs réelles passées; d'affiner la prédiction cumulative mensuelle pour rendre compte d'anomalies dans les ventes, dues à des congés nationaux ou locaux; et de fournir des intervalles de confiance indiquant l'exactitude supposée de la prédiction cumulative mensuelle actuelle.

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