G - Physics – 06 – F
Patent
G - Physics
06
F
G06F 17/18 (2006.01) G06F 19/00 (2006.01)
Patent
CA 2300546
The present invention relates to a method for quantitative estimation of the reliability of a technical system, which is useful, in particular, for complex systems with a multiplicity of components. First, second and third failure rates are distinguished for the system components. In accordance with the invention, an upper, lower and, if appropriate, mean value are in each case estimated for the largely unknown second failure rates by subjective expert opinion, and all upper, lower and, if appropriate, mean estimates are used separately to calculate an optimistic and pessimistic limiting probability distribution (2, 3) and, if appropriate, a mean probability distribution (1) of the system reliability. Systematic correlations between expert estimates are thereby taken into account. For the first failure rates, mean values obtained from operational experience are determined With a confidence interval, and widened Poisson distributions are calculated. Furthermore, it is possible to add to the overall probability of the system reliability the Poisson distributions of third types of fault whose failure rates are known a priori or with a high statistical reliability. The method is suitable, in particular, for use in connection with FMEA ("Failure/Fault Modes and Effects Analysis") tables (4) and FMECA ("Failure/Fault Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis") tables (4).
Abb Research Ltd.
Bombardier Transportation Gmbh
Ogilvy Renault Llp/s.e.n.c.r.l.,s.r.l.
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