Bayesian network applications to geology and geographics

G - Physics – 06 – F

Patent

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G06F 17/10 (2006.01) E21B 49/00 (2006.01) G01V 1/30 (2006.01) G01V 9/00 (2006.01)

Patent

CA 2572981

A method and apparatus are disclosed for modeling a system to estimate values and associated uncertainties for a first set of variables describing the system. A second set of system variables is selected, where the second set is directly or indirectly causally related to the first set of variables. Data is obtained or estimated for each variable in the second set and the quality of selected data is appraised. A network is formed with nodes including both sets of variables and the quality appraisals, having directional links connecting interdependent nodes, the directional links honoring known causality relationships. A Bayesian Network algorithm is used with the data and quality information to solve the network for the first set of variables and their associated uncertainties.

L'invention concerne un procédé et un appareil de modélisation d'un système afin d'évaluer les valeurs et les incertitudes associées pour un premier ensemble de valeurs décrivant le système. On sélectionne un second ensemble de variables de système en relation causale directe ou indirecte avec le premier ensemble de variables. Pour chaque variable dans le second ensemble, on obtient ou on évalue des données et, par la suite, on estime la qualité des données sélectionnées. On forme un réseau avec des noeuds comprenant les deux ensembles de variables et les estimations de qualité, réseau présentant des liaisons directionnelles connectant des noeuds interdépendants, les liaisons directionnelles répondant aux relations de causalité connues. Un algorithme de réseau bayésien est utilisé avec les données et l'information sur la qualité afin de proposer un réseau adéquat pour le premier ensemble de variables et leurs incertitudes associées.

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