Method and system for analyzing and predicting the behavior...

G - Physics – 06 – F

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G06F 11/30 (2006.01) G06F 11/32 (2006.01) G06F 11/34 (2006.01)

Patent

CA 2471013

A monitoring system including a baseline model that automatically captures and models normal system behavior, a correlation model that employs multivariate autoregression analysis to detect abnormal system behavior, and an alarm service that weight and scores a variety of alerts to determine an alarm status and implement appropriate response actions. The baseline model decomposes the input variables into a number of components representing relatively predictable behaviors so that the erratic component e(t) may be isolated for further processing. These components include a global trend component, a cyclical component, and a seasonal component. Modeling and continually updating these components separately permits a more accurate identification of the erratic component of the input variable, which typically reflects abnormal patterns when they occur.

Système de surveillance comprenant un modèle de ligne de base qui capture et modélise automatiquement le comportement normal d'un système, modèle de corrélation qui utilise l'analyse autorégressive multidimensionnelle pour détecter un comportement anormal du système, et service d'alarmes qui pondère et classe plusieurs alertes pour déterminer un statut d'alarme et lancer des actions de réponse appropriées. Le modèle de ligne de base décompose ensuite les variables d'entrée en un certain nombre de composantes représentant des comportements relativement prévisibles, de manière à ce que la composante aberrante e(t) puisse être isolée pour traitement ultérieur. Ces composantes comprennent une composante de tendance générale, une composante de tendance globale, une composante cyclique et une composante saisonnière. La modélisation et la mise à jour permanentes et séparées de ces composantes permettent une identification plus précise d'une composante aberrante de la variable d'entrée, qui reflète habituellement des schémas anormaux lorsque ceux-ci se produisent.

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