Method and system for scenario and case decision management

G - Physics – 06 – Q

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G06Q 10/00 (2006.01) E21B 41/00 (2006.01)

Patent

CA 2527855

A system and method may be configured to support the evaluation of the economic impact of uncertainties associated with the planning of a petroleum production project, e.g., uncertainties associated with decisions having multiple possible outcomes and uncertainties associated with uncontrollable parameters such as rock properties, oil prices, etc. The system and method involve receiving user input characterizing the uncertainty of planning variables and performing an iterative simulation that computes the economic return for various possible instantiations of the set of planning variables based on the uncertainty characterization. The system and method may (a) utilize and integrate highly rigorous physical reservoir, well, production flow, and economic models, and (b) provide a mechanism for specifying constraints on the planning variables. Furthermore, the system and method may provide a case manager process for managing multiple cases and associated "experimental runs" on the cases.

Selon cette invention, un système et un procédé peuvent être conçus pour soutenir l'évaluation de l'impact économique d'incertitudes associées à la planification d'un projet de production de pétrole, telles que des incertitudes associées à des décisions donnant de multiples résultats possibles et des incertitudes associées à des paramètres incontrôlables tels que les propriétés des roches ou les prix du pétrole. Le système et le procédé de cette invention impliquent la réception d'une entrée utilisateur caractérisant l'incertitude de variables de planification et l'exécution d'une simulation itérative permettant de calculer le rendement économique pour diverses instanciations possibles de l'ensemble de variables de planification en fonction de la caractérisation des incertitudes. Le système et le procédé de cette invention peuvent (a) utiliser et intégrer des modèles hautement rigoureux de réservoirs physiques, de puits, de flux de production et économiques et (b) mettre en oeuvre un mécanisme permettant de spécifier des contraintes exercées sur les variables de planification. En outre, le système et le procédé de cette invention peuvent générer un processus de gestion de cas permettant de gérer de multiples cas ainsi que les "phases expérimentales" correspondantes relatives aux cas.

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